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I am progressive. I am liberal. I make no apologies. I believe government has an obligation to create an even playing field for all of this country's citizens and immigrants alike. I am not a socialist. I do not seek enforced equality. However, there has to be equality of opportunity, and the private sector, left to its own devices, will never achieve this goal. This site is for liberals and progressives for Ron Mills Podcast& news and commentary.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Primaries are not a good predictor.
First, there is a record turnout year for Dems that wallops the turnout numbers for Republicans. The Dems have a three way fight that eventually goes to the candidate who has attracted the youth vote, crossover voters and blacks in impressive numbers. And at the end of the primary season the Democratic nominee is leading the Republican nominee in the polls. What year am I talking about? 1988. And I am talking about Michael Dukakis. (link) Link to primary turnout numbers since 1972 here. The Democratic primaries have always had higher turnout, except for 1996 and 2000. They are a sorry predictor of what will happen in the fall. Especially so if Republicans have been gaming the system. More on that here and here.
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