THE LAY OF THE LAND IN 2006: Republicans Could Stay Dry on
Higher Ground
PLUS - The 2006 Midterm Map of America
The drumbeat has become the daily background noise in
most Beltway political circles, as pervasive as it is percussive. It
echoes on today, just as it has for well over a month: in just 40 days and 40
nights, Democrats will wake up to find that they have emerged from four years in
the wilderness, having gained the necessary seats in one or both chambers of
Congress to win a legislative check on President Bush and restore divided
control of government.
But not so fast! Yes, back at the beginning of
last month, the Crystal Ball observed surer signs of a Democratic
"micro-wave" gathering strength on its way to "macro-wave"
status. And don't get us wrong, the minority party remains poised to reap
sizeable gains in Senate seats, House seats, and governorships, especially in
places where the weakest Republican targets have seemed in danger of getting
swept out to sea for many months. But with six weeks left to go until the
midterm madness draws to a close, the Crystal Ball sees several indications that
the tide may be turning back in the GOP's favor--at least temporarily. Furthermore,
some states are starting to look a lot less susceptible to a pro-Democratic
tidal wave than others-—in other words, at least some Republican property lies
on higher, safer ground.
Since around the time of the fifth anniversary of the
September 11th terrorist attacks upon America, Republicans have clearly caught a
few breaks. First and foremost, the rebound in President Bush's approval
ratings over the last few weeks has struck us as both stable and perceptible, if
tiny, across the average of reputable national surveys. Whereas his job
performance approval mark lingered in the mid-to-high 30's all summer, we
suspect the figure is now hovering more closely around 40 percent--still dismal
within the historical context of presidents in their sixth year, but slightly
less calamitous than before. The slightly improved
ratings have given many Republicans new hopes that the campaigner-in-chief will
be able to reappear on the campaign trail to help soothe the sixth-year itch.
Such an up-tick, though small, reflects the
perpetuation of a trend we have now seen at work in each of the three most
recent federal election cycles: a modest-to-severe sharpening of national
focus onto terrorism and national security, clearly Bush and the GOP's most
dependable strong suit, during the second-to-last month of each campaign season.
Regardless of congressional Republicans' ability to pass the most sacred
provisions of their terror bill during the recent month-long session billed as
"Security September," the slogan more appropriately describes the
month's biennial election agenda-setting tendencies. To
many a Democrat's chagrin, "Security September" has fairly or unfairly
become a fixture of our early 21st Century politics.
The Crystal Ball would also note that within the framework of the month's
predominant theme of national security, President Bush may have been shrewd to
intensify and increase his rhetorical linkage of the War on Terror to the fight
against Nazi Germany in World War II. The association is bound to strike a chord
with older Americans for whom a costly and prolonged military struggle with an
abhorrent enemy is a familiar and powerful memory. As the president's political
advisors are well aware, older voters turn out to vote at a much higher rate
than younger voters to begin with, but the resonance of such an appeal in 2006
is especially critical: voters over age 50 account for
an even larger percentage of the electorate in midterm years than they do in
presidential years.
So how important is a jump in Bush approval from mid-to-high thirties to high
thirties-to-low forties? The difference may seem miniscule, but it cannot be
overlooked. For one, it represents a stabilization and possible directional
change in his popularity. But 40 days out from Election Day, it seems that 40
percent approval may be the very watermark at which control of Congress is
determined in a "wave" election year. The
phenomenon can also be thought of as a tug of war in which 40 percent may be a
line of demarcation for control: even a tiny change in approval could be
enough to shift the votes necessary to move the determinative seats in our "Ferocious
Forty" toward one party or the other (Oh, and by the way, have we
mentioned the number 40 enough today?).
Another modest boost for Republican congressional prospects promises to be
the falling price of oil, the high price of which has contributed to voter
unease on a grand scale throughout the 2006 cycle. The
relatively precipitous decline coinciding with the conclusion of the summer
driving season has helped the GOP in two ways. First, it has helped to
calm many voters' nerves and has contributed to increased public confidence in
the general strength of the economy. Second, it has blunted the potential impact
and effectiveness of Democratic ads attacking incumbent Republican legislators
for "siding with big oil" and not doing enough to combat price
gouging. Make no mistake: the emergence of sub-$2.00-a-gallon gasoline comes as
a very welcome development for just about everyone except Democratic candidates
and campaign committees, who have "pumped" a fortune into independent
expenditure ads to seize on oil anxieties.
To be sure, the list of potential developments and
events that could restore momentum to the oncoming Democratic wave is
considerable: fallout from declassification of the National Intelligence
Estimate finding its way into effective Democratic attacks and more turns for
the worse in Iraq damaging the GOP are just two possibilities. But the list of
possible pro-Republican October surprises is equally long, if not longer: an
administration nudge to oil companies to drop prices fast (no wait, that's a
SEPTEMBER surprise!), a surprising announcement mid-October that a big chunk of
troops will be leaving by year's end because of "improving
conditions," whether true or not (and the troops can be left in after the
election), and an executive order implementing some of Bush's positions on
immigration (constitutional? The courts will decide AFTER the election) are some
of our favorite stabs in the dark.
The point is this: elections are a one-day clearance sale. You either sell on
that one day or you don't. Your opponent can be leading
364 days of the year, but as long as you are ahead on one day, November 7th, by
one vote, you win. That's why a grand SERIES of October surprises leading
up to Nov. 7th can work, because the White House can make things happen, or
APPEAR to make things happen, just when it matters most. Timing is everything,
and the White House political team has understood this well, managing the
political game clock to victory in two successive elections. It's
within the realm of possibilities that they could find a way to frustrate
Democrats grandly a third time.
Keeping these considerations in mind, the Crystal
Ball has not yet changed its outlook from last month to project larger
Democratic gains. Contrary to the prognostications of several other
observers, we continue to see Democrats on the cusp of regaining congressional
majorities at the UPPER end of their expected gains: if the election were held
today, the party currently out of power would likely net 12-15 seats in the
House (+15 needed for control) and 3-5 seats in the Senate (+6 needed for
control). At the gubernatorial level, Democrats remain favored pick up 4 to 6
additional states' top jobs, for a grand total of 26-28 governorships (and
unfortunately for the Democrats, it's the majority that doesn't matter!).
In predicting the outcome of the 2006 midterm
madness, it's critically important to point out that some states' Republicans
seem far more likely than others' to ride out a strong Democratic wave
unscathed. The uneven lay of the political land in this volatile year
means that while only a national "micro-wave" would be needed to wash
away Republican seats in some states, a "macro-wave" would be
necessary to engulf Republicans and sweep Democrats to gains in others. This
week and next, the Crystal Ball will offer this "topographical view"
of the 2006 elections, beginning this week with the states in which Republicans
are LEAST likely to suffer the consequences of a national, anti-Bush Democratic
surge:
Republican Highlands - The States LEAST Vulnerable to
a Democratic Wave
- Michigan - The Great Lakes State may be
facing greater economic woes than any other in the nation as the flagging
auto industry continues to hemorrhage jobs, but who's to blame? President
Bush, or the state's two Democratic senators and Democratic governor?
Although the circumstances with regard to auto jobs are most likely out of
every officeholder's control, many Michigan voters are receptive to a
"throw the bums out" message, and taking their anger out on
incumbents in 2006 means voting to send Democrats Gov. Jennifer Granholm and
Sen. Debbie Stabenow packing. Of the two women, Granholm is in much greater
political danger: she faces a strong challenge from very wealthy GOP
businessman Dick DeVos while Stabenow faces a milder challenge from Oakland
County sheriff Mike Bouchard. It's worth noting that there's virtually no
chance for a Democratic pick-up of any sort in Michigan: none of the state's
nine GOP House seats face serious threat of takeover. - Florida - The Sunshine State's swampy
lowlands belie the state's relatively high political elevation for
Republicans in 2006. The 2000 presidential tie here seemed to be somewhat of
a Democratic pinnacle of achievement; it's been downhill ever since for the
party. Sure, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson will be reelected in a walk this
November over a candidate just about everyone gave up on months ago, but GOP
Attorney General Charlie Crist appears well on his way to succeeding GOP
Gov. Jeb Bush against a reasonably strong Democratic opponent, Tampa-area
Rep. Jim Davis. Republican enthusiasm here seemed anything but depressed on
primary day, when many more Republicans than Democrats showed up to vote.
And our sense is that the state's top GOP House target, veteran Rep. Clay
Shaw, is taking his tough reelection bid very seriously and holds an
improbable if narrow lead in his Kerry-carried district heading into the
final month of the campaign. One possible sudden-upset race to watch:
Florida's 16th District, where allegations GOP Rep. Mark Foley sent
inappropriately personal emails to a 16 year old congressional page are sure
to raise more than a few very suspicious eyebrows. - California - It's astonishing: the Golden
State accounts for just over 12 percent of the nation's population, but just
about zero percent of the nation's competitive elections in 2006! Despite
the state's strong liberal lean, moderate-to-liberal GOP Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger appears to be cruising to reelection in a contest against his
perfect foil: Democratic State Treasurer Phil Angelides, who is eagerly
caricatured as a standard, organization politician and whose only reliable
support has come from the relatively small but very loud unions many
Californians have come to view dimly. And Democratic gains in House seats
will be very difficult to come by, even though the state sends the second
largest Republican delegation to Congress (Texas moved into the lead last
year). Only the seats of northern California GOP Reps. John Doolittle and
Richard Pombo appear on the horizon line of outside opportunities for
Democratic pick-ups, and even so, their vulnerabilities have been largely
self-inflicted. - Georgia - Democrats just can't seem to
catch a break in the Peach State, where Republicans have dominated major
statewide elections since turning the tide at the turn of the century. It's
possible that the nastiest Democratic gubernatorial primary of the year took
place for no good reason, as the eventual winner, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor,
finds himself facing a double-digit deficit against reasonably popular GOP
Gov. Sonny Perdue, the surprise upset victor of the 2002 general election.
Would Democratic Secretary of State Cathy Cox be doing any better? In our
estimation, probably not: this has been Perdue's race to lose from the
start. Notably, Georgia is the only state in which Republicans are
exclusively on the OFFENSIVE in competitive House races. Both GOP ex-Reps.
Mac Collins and Max Burns are receiving serious White House financial help
in their bids to return to Congress after two-year hiatuses, although they
remain slight underdogs against Democratic Reps. Jim Marshall and John
Barrow in newly redrawn districts, respectively. - New Jersey - Of all years, could 2006 be
the one Republicans finally break the statewide losing streak that has
frustrated them here for nine years? Such a scenario in the solidly blue
Garden State would prove the cruelest irony for national Democrats, who are
suddenly very jittery about the prospects of their nominee, appointed Sen.
Bob Menendez. Last week, a federal attorney launched an investigation into
Hudson County rental properties owned by the new senator, and just this week
Menendez was forced to sever his ties to a close campaign adviser,
Democratic mega-lawyer Donald Scarinci, after tapes revealed Scarinci had
improperly asked for a hiring favor on Menendez's behalf several years ago.
GOP State Sen. Tom Kean, on the other hand, maintains all the advantages of
running as the anti-Washington candidate in the race in addition to his
politically advantageous last name. A Kean win would be a GOP pick-up and a
crippling if not fatal blow to Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate.
Down-ballot, Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender's challenge to GOP Rep.
Mike Ferguson represents the party's best hope of adding to its 7-6 edge in
the House delegation, but the race is not yet truly competitive. Don't
expect a massive Democratic wave to be pounding the Jersey Shore on November
7th!
Coming next week: (you guessed it!) Republican
Lowlands - The States MOST Vulnerable to a Democratic Wave
The 2006 Midterm Map of America
THIS JUST IN: There is no national election in November 2006, whatever you
might have heard to the contrary. No, there hasn't been an overnight
jazz-accompanied, Thai-style coup, and the DMV hasn't mysteriously lost
everyone's "motor voter" applications. Rather, 2006 is comprised of a
patchwork collection of party contests scattered across the country.
Just as in a presidential election, it's easy to think of a midterm election
as "national," since all 435 U.S. House seats are on the ballot, plus
36 governorships and 33 Senate seats. However, there is nothing aproaching a
presidential contest to tie every state's ballots together. Generally, midterms
feature multiple close races in about two-thirds of the states.
The problem is how to determine where those competitive races lie. Looking at
a physical map or a road map isn't going tell you where the hottest races are to
be found--for trees, rocks and acres aren't the currency of American politics.
In order to provide a clearer guide to the 2006 midterms, the Crystal Ball has
put together the 2006 Midterm Map of America. A
state is assigned 10 points for a very competitive Senate race; 10 points for a
large-state governorship contest of the same variety; 8 points for a very
competitive medium- or small-state governorship; 6 points for a second-tier
competitive race for the Senate anywhere or a governorship in a large state; 4
points for a second-tier governor's contest in a medium or small state; 2 points
for each competitive House seat; and zero points for uncompetitve contests.
Intangible factors were considered as well, and as a result a point was added or
subtracted here and there. Based on this scale, each state was resized to
reflect its actual significance in the 2006 elections.
As you can see smaller states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut
and Rhode Island are expanded quite a bit, while larger states like California,
Texas, Wyoming and the Dakotas are greatly contracted. With control of both
chambers of Congress not guaranteed for either party, any competitive race will
get significant attention. However, the 2006 Midterm Map can guide you to where
much of the action is.
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For a larger, PDF version of the 2006 Midterm Map of America, click
here.
Senate, House and Governor Race Analysis Updates
The Crystal Ball has updated individual race analysis for the following
contests:
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