Sunday, February 24, 2008

Primaries are not a good predictor.

First, there is a record turnout year for Dems that wallops the turnout numbers for Republicans.  The Dems have a three way fight that eventually goes to the candidate who has attracted the youth vote, crossover voters and blacks in impressive numbers.  And at the end of the primary season the Democratic nominee is leading the Republican nominee in the polls.  What year am I talking about?  1988.  And I am talking about Michael Dukakis.  (link)  Link to primary turnout numbers since 1972 here. The Democratic primaries have always had higher  turnout, except for 1996 and 2000.  They are a sorry predictor of what will happen in the fall.  Especially so if Republicans have been gaming the system. More on that here and here.

  
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