Sunday, May 04, 2008

Clinton Camp Memo on Indiana, North Carolina Contests


To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction
Still Stand?
Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.
Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.
Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?
It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois – Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations – a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.
The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million — $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.
Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.
In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m — $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.
The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families – who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?

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