Thursday, May 01, 2008

If the super delegates are looking at electability: Clinton Wins Hands Down

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a news release:

"If the super delegates are looking at electability, these results could be a shot in the arm for Senator Clinton. No one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying two of these three swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And she clearly is running much better against Senator McCain than is Senator Obama, at least for now.
"There is no indication that Obama's problems with white working class Democrats in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries have gone away.
"Many voters cite trustworthiness as the most important quality they want in a candidate. Clinton is found wanting in that department, but still does best in the matchups. She wins because she is seen as a strong leader who cares about people and can improve the economy.
"McCain's age is a significant problem in the minds of voters as are his ties to President George W. Bush. He is seen as the least able to fix the economy and bring about change. The data indicates he needs to continue to try and put some distance between himself and President Bush, whose job approval ratings remain awful."
From April 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 Florida voters. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
Other findingsl
Demographics
- Facing McCain in November, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among women, while he gets 45 percent of men to her 43 percent. They tie 45 - 45 percent among white voters, while she leads 80 - 11 percent among black voters.
- In an Obama-McCain matchup, men back McCain 46 - 42 percent, while women split, with 44 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain. The Republican leads among white voters 50 - 36 percent, while the Democrat leads among black voters 83 - 8 percent.
Favorability
- Clinton has a 49 - 40 percent favorability rating. That means 49 percent have a favorable view and 40 percent unfavorable. Obama is 47 percent - 36 percent for Obama and McCain is 51 - 32 percent.
Economy- The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 50 percent of Florida voters say, with 22 percent who list the war in Iraq and 10 percent who list health care.
- If Clinton is elected, 44 percent say the economy will get better. If Obama is elected, 38 percent say the economy will get better. Only 24 percent say the economy will improve under McCain.
Candidate Characteristics
- The most important quality they want in a candidate is strong leadership, 29 percent of voters say, while 27 percent want someone trustworthy and 23 percent want someone competent.
- McCain is a strong leader, 73 percent of the voters say, while 20 percent consider him not a strong leader. The leadership split is 69 - 27 percent for Clinton and 58 - 30 percent for Obama. McCain also leads on the trustworthy measure 68 - 22 percent, with 58 - 28 percent saying Obama is trustworthy, and Clinton split at 46 - 46 percent.
- A total of 43 percent of Florida voters say a candidate's age is "very important" or "somewhat important."
"In Florida, with its large number of senior citizens, age is an issue. That could hurt Senator McCain. These same voters are less concerned with gender or race, which would impact Senator Clinton or Senator Obama. But it may well be that people are more reluctant to concede they're making decisions based on a candidate's race or sex," Brown said.
Full poll results here.


  
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