Our odds.... 2006

From the National Journal's Charlie Cook, who is huge big factor in the DC conventional wisdom.


On the House:
On the other side of Capitol Hill, Democrats would need a 15-seat gain to win a majority in the House, which is currently divided at 232 Republicans and 203 Democrats. But while the numbers are different, the dynamics are much the same: there just aren't enough competitive open seats or vulnerable Republican incumbents on the table for Democrats to have a realistic shot at winning a majority [...]
Ultimately, as of this writing, we list a total of 28 seats as competitive --10 are held by Democrats and 18 are held by Republicans. For Democrats to pick up 15 seats - the number they need for control of the House - it would mean that they'd need to win almost every one of the vulnerable Republican seats (an almost 85 percent win rate), while not losing any of their own. Those are very long odds, even if the political winds are blowing favorably for Democrats.
While there may be more Republican retirements in the coming months and some of those might be in competitive districts, and while Democrats do have some time before many filing deadlines for candidates pass, it is unlikely that they will be able to put the 50 Republican seats in play that is thought to be necessary to have a reasonable chance of scoring a net gain of 15 seats. A more likely result is that Democrats end up with a net gain of between four and nine seats, roughly cutting the Republican margin in half in this midterm election campaign.
On the Senate:
In the Senate, where Republicans have a 55- to 45-seat majority, Democrats need to gain six seats to secure a majority. A five-seat gain that would bring the chamber to 50-50 does not help Democrats much since Vice President Cheney would break tie votes in favor of the GOP [...]
The bottom line is that even if one assumes that Republicans are going to have a very bad election year in 2006, the odds are still quite high that they will maintain a majority in the Senate, albeit with a diminished margin. It appears today that Democrats will pick up two to four seats, which would leave Republicans with 51, 52 or 53 seats instead of the 55 seats they hold now.
This actually sounds about right. While a huge wave could bring us control of at least one chamber in 2006, the odds are against it. Chances are we'll gain roughly as many seats as Cook says in the House and Senate, positioning us nicely for a 2008 takeover.